Posts Tagged ‘Crystal ball projections’

Wells Fargo Securities ANNUAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2011*

*email me for the full 28 page report  Julie@JulieHutton.com

Executive Summary: (Julie’s review & Hot Points)

  • Growth in the coming year will remain modest, containing risks that could potentially hinder (real estate) performance
  • 2011 trends in real estate to turn positive for the first time since the beginning of the recession.
  • Mortgage rates remain low and housing affordability remains high.
  • 40 year Legacy of Decisions: We are faced with a legacy of decisions made, or often postponed, over the last forty years.
  • Households are right-sizing their debt load and this behavior will likely persist for several more years for many households.
  • Still plenty of troubled projects that need to be disposed of… prices for distressed projects are likely to fall further once lenders become committed to cleansing their portfolios.
  • (Because of) continued government intervention and oversupply, the market still cannot indicate the true values of real estate. (true values still unknown)
  • We have entered an atypical recovery.
  • (New economic reality) demands a new approach to decision-making.
    • Decisions traps: (old ways of projecting future trends based on traditional historical perspectives.) Restrictive assumptions and methods.
      • Path dependence (from historical perspectives) translates into slower assessment and adaption to the new economic realities that economic agents face.
      • Home prices have declined more than would have been forecasted using the traditional methods.
    • High degree of risk aversion on the part of lenders.
      • Home prices depressed or declining.
      • 20% of all home mortgage applications have been declined because the appraisal has fallen too far below the market price agreed upon by the buyer and seller.
      • Housing slump is making it more difficult for homeowners to sell their current home and relocate.
      • Home prices are now expected to decline toward the lower end of the six to eight percent range.
      • Reaching the bottom in home prices further out until mid-2011.
      • Over Supply: 10.2 monthly supply of existing homes on the market toward the end of 2010.
      • 23% of mortgages are currently underwater and foreclosures remain a serious problem in many states.
        • Delinquencies and foreclosures have been far more severe given the depth of the recession.
        • 2.2 million homes were in foreclosure in 2010
        • Mortgages on 2.2 million home were 90 days or more past due.

If you don’t have time to read all 28 pages, just read Julie’s EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. It will give you a thumbnail picture of the financial picture based on some of the brightest Ph.D’s from Wells Fargo Securities Economic Group (see the last page for their information).

Truth is… nobody REALLY knows. It’s a whole new economic world out there. <grins>

Hope this is helpful information for your future decision making.


Warmest, Julie


Julie Hutton


Sales & Marketing Specialist

Coldwell Banker Bain

8525 120th Ave NE, Ste 100

Kirkland, WA 98033




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